To celebrate its 50 YEARS, DIAGMA organized an evening on the theme “The Supply Chain in 2050” to which it invited its customers and prospects. Speakers were Jean-Patrice Netter, Founding President of DIAGMA, Hervé Le Bras, demographer and historian, as well as Benoît Rottembourg from INRIA. A convivial and enriching evening of which we offer you the presentations and replays below.
DIAGMA’S 50TH ANNIVERSARY EVENING: SUMMARY OF PRESENTATIONS
Introduction by Mathieu Kandaroun, MAISON DE L’OCEAN
During the DIAGMA 50TH ANNIVERSARY evening organized at the MAISON de L’OCEAN on June 20, 2023 on the theme “The Supply Chain in 2050”, Mathieu Kandaroun, Event Project Manager at the OCEANOGRAPHIC INSTITUTE began with a short introduction to the activities of the MAISON DE L’OCEAN dedicated to the study and protection of the ocean, a prestigious place where the event took place.
Welcome by Olivier Dubouis, CEO and Partner of DIAGMA
Olivier Dubouis, Managing Director and Partner of DIAGMA, took the floor for a few words of thanks, in particular to the customers and prospects invited by the consulting firm specializing in Supply Chain for more than 50 years.
Speech by Jean-Patrice Netter, Founding President of DIAGMA
Jean-Patrice Netter, Founding President of DIAGMA gave a retrospective of the Supply Chain and the evolution of DIAGMA since the 70s, to end with a prospective vision of our sector and of the consulting firm specializing in Supply Chain.
Speech by Hervé Le Bras, INED, EHESS
Hervé Le Bras, demographer, historian, director of research at the Institut National d’Etudes Démographiques (INED), director of studies at the École des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (Ehess) and author of numerous reference books, presented various graphs on population trends in the world, in Europe and in France.
A WORLD POPULATION THAT COULD DECREASE
Thus, after fearing the demographic explosion, the population of the world could begin to decrease from 2065 according to the teams of the Lancet and the Wittgenstein Institute, from 2080 according to the United Nations. Already fertility is less than two children per woman in a majority of countries. Strong growth is now limited to intertropical Africa and Western Asia. In 2050, three quarters of the world’s population would come from intertropical Africa.
MORE DIFFICULT DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS AT COUNTRY LEVEL
The forecasts, or more exactly the demographic projections, fairly accurate at the global level, are much less so at the country level. This is the case for developing countries, Iran or Niger, but also for developed countries, in particular France whose projected population in 1994 for 2050 was 60 million and now 72 million.
THREE TRENDS AT EUROPEAN LEVEL
In the European Union, three types of regime exist: in the East and South-East, deaths outweigh births and the population is decreasing; in the center, the same, but thanks to immigration, the population is growing; finally, in the West and North-West, births exceed deaths. The French population is in the third case, but the gap between births and deaths is closing rapidly, so that the population could soon decrease for lack of sufficient immigration.
CONTRASTING DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN FRANCE
Within France itself, developments are contrasting. A large swath of the territory stretching from the Ardennes to the Lot continues to lose inhabitants although the density there is already low (the famous “diagonal of the void”). Another fairly recent characteristic is the displacement of the population towards the South and the West: north of a Saint-Malo Geneva line, the balance sheet of internal migrations is negative, but positive in the south.
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
Of all demographic behaviors, international migration is the most difficult to predict. The level should not be exaggerated because only 3.5% of the population lives in a country other than that of birth. Although our eyes are focused on Europe, it should be remembered that the largest volumes of migrants are found in North America and the Persian Gulf.
Speech by Benoît Rottembourg, INRIA
Benoit Rottembourg, Head of Regalia (pilot project to deal with the biases generated by the algorithms of digital platforms) at INRIA (National Institute for Research in Digital Sciences and Technologies), gave an overview of advances in AI, in particular generative.
According to him, the Supply Chain, which already relies on many high-performance forecasting, planning and optimization algorithms, will not be the most impacted by advances in AI.
However, they are real. And if visual recognition, as well as the composition of texts, sounds, computer codes and images, are already very successful, advances should still be going well in the very near future.
Professions such as legal or health, for example, should be largely impacted. And anyway, we will now have to take into account the AI that is infiltrating everywhere and adapting to the new tools it offers to stay in the race.